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Intrade: The prediction market (historical data)

by The trader, 2964 days ago
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Intrade is a market prediction website where users predict whether a specific event will occur or not. In fact, Intrade is an exchange that facilitates the matching of orders from its customers. Intrade users trade events instead of securities. Each event has a close, open, high, low and a volume price. The close prices are defined by the buy and sell orders executed by Intrade users. It is a little bit as if you are trading stocks or currencies. The price varies from 0 to 100, where an event that is trading at 80, means that there is a 80% chance that the event will happen.
There are several categories of events in the Intrade website: Business, Climate and Weather, Construction & Engineering, Current Events, Entertainment, Financial, Fine Art, Fine Wine, Intrade.com, Legal, Politics, Scientific, Social and Civil, Technologies, Company Valuation, Transportation.

Example of traded financial events:
- Annualized quarterly Real GDP figures for 4 consecutive quarters sum to worse than -10%, which current close price is 98.1, that is, there is 98.1% chance that this event will occur.
- US Unemployment Rate in Dec 2009 to be greater than 10.00%.

Example of traded Political events:
- Democratic Party candidate to win 2012 Presidential Election
- Sarah Palin to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012

If you visit the Intrade website (http://data.intrade.com), select one event then click on its chart, a new window will appears. In this window, in the URL bar, note the contract ID of this event.
Example: (The contract ID of the following event is 657147)
http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com&contractId=657147
You will need these contract IDs to download historical quotes data for these events.

The current item downloads historical data for any event. You just need to enter the contract ID of every event that interests you, in the 'contractID' textbox (one contract ID per line).
The item creates and associates a symbol to an event after it downloads its historical quotes data. For an event with the contract ID number (657147), the symbol name will be (^INTRADE_657147).


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Trading financial instruments, including foreign exchange on margin, carries a high level of risk and is not suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in financial instruments or foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.