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Two Consecutive and Positive Earnings Surprises

by Patrick Fonce, 3121 days ago
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Usually stocks respond positively to an earnings surprise. Sometimes they are up more than 10 or 20 percent and sometimes just a few percent; it all depends on the stock and more importantly on the earnings surprise number.

This screen searches for stocks that have two consecutive and positive earnings surprises. The last earnings surprise must have occurred during the last five trading days. The screen gets earnings surprise data from the following downloader: Historical Earnings Surprise, EPS and Consensus Data (You should first download and run this downloader to get EPS, Consensus and surprise data before executing this screen). The screen then uses the "ValueWhen" function to get the previous earning surprise number and verify that this number and the last earnings surprise are higher than zero. Finally, the screen looks for the last five bars of each stock, using "hhv" function, to check whether two positive and consecutive earnings surprises occurred or not.

According to a research paper "Small Trader Reactions to Consecutive Earnings Surprises", small traders show an increasing reaction after a series of positive earnings surprises. This means that stocks that are mainly traded by small traders (usually small caps) are likely to produce a bigger increase on the second and third consecutive positive earnings surprises. The study also shows that this consecutive earnings surprises pattern is weaker for larger investors and almost inexistent for the largest institutional traders.

Here is another EPS actual and surprise data downloader: EPS Surprise and Actual

The Research Paper:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=449882


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Type: Screen

Object ID: 836


Country:
United States

Market: Stock Market

Style:
Fundamental Analysis

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