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The Survey of Professional Forecasters began in 1968. It was conducted by the both the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research before the second quarter of 1990; now it is released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The Survey of Professional Forecasters is considered the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the U.S.
Several professional forecasters are asked about their projections for the next five quarters, as well as the current and next year, of 32 economic variables. The economic variables include Nominal Gross National Product NGDP, Civilian Unemployment Rate, Nonfarm Payroll Employment, Industrial Production Index, 3-Month Treasury bill Rate, 10-Year Treasury bond Rate, AAA Corporate Bond Yield, BAA Corporate Bond Yield, Real Change in Private Inventories, CPI Inflation Rate - CPI, PCE Inflation Rate, 5-Year CPI Inflation Rate, 10-Year Bond Return, 10-Year Bill Return, Natural Rate of Unemployment, Probability of Civilian Unemployment Rate ...
This object downloads the current and the next year average forecast of the AAA Corporate Bond Yield. The current year average forecast is stored in a symbol, whose name is "^AAA_BOND_YEAR_FORECAST", whereas the next year average forecast is stored in a symbol, whose name is "^AAA_BOND_NEXTYEAR_FORECAST".
The item can be easily changed to download the forecast of another economic data. It can also be changed to download the forecast of the next five quarters, instead of the current and next year forecasts.
- All you have to do is to visit the following page:
http://www.phil.frb.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/survey-of-professional-forecasters/data-files/
- Click on an economic data, and copy the "Mean Responses" link.
- On your trading software, select this download item, click on "Update" and paste the "Mean Responses" link into the cells that are under the "URL" column. Finally, update the ticker symbol that is located under the "Symbol" column.
The economic data forecasts are released each quarter.
