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Forex Trading Indicator - Better than expected Economic Calendar Events
For each Forex currency pair, you can use the Currency Pairs Calendar Data trading item to download historical calendar events in a custom intraday database. This database will contain calendar events for several currency pairs as well as the actual, the forecast and the previous value for each event.
This indicator requires this data in order to calculate the percentage of better than expected events for a given country (for each trading day (bar period)). That is, the number of events where the actual value is higher than the expected value divided by the total number of economic events during the bar period.
The Forex trading indicator name is "PerBetterExpectedEvents".
For example on April 2, 2010, there were five economic events related to the United States.
Average Hourly Earnings (Month over Month): The actual value is -0.1 and the forecast value is 0.2.
Nonfarm Payrolls: The actual value is 230 and the forecast value is 187.
Average Hourly Earnings (Year over Year): The actual value is 1.8. There is no forecast value.
Unemployment Rate: In line with expectations (9.7).
Average weekly Hours: The actual value is 34. There is no forecast value.
Among these five economic releases, the only one that has a higher than expected value is the "Nonfarm Payrolls". The "Average weekly Hours" and "Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)" have no forecast values.
Therefore, the value that is returned by the PerBetterExpectedEvents("United States") Forex indicator is equal to 20%.
Here is how to calculate the moving average of this better than expected economic releases indicator:
moving_average = SMA(PerBetterExpectedEvents("United States"), 10);
And here is how to create a trading rule that compares the economic releases of a Forex pair:
For the GBPUSD currency pair (U.S. Dollar / British Pound)
forex_diff = PerBetterExpectedEvents("United Kingdom") > PerBetterExpectedEvents("United States");
The variable "forex_diff" of this trading rule returns one when the percentage of better than expected economic releases in United Kingdom is higher than the one of the United States.